According to the new Delphi Analytica poll that surveyed 935 registered Republican voters in the Alabama, a list that included 5 potential nominees — there appears to be a close race between Luther Strange and Mo Brooks to fill the seat left vacant by Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
We polled; Luther Strange (incumbent US Senator), Mo Brooks (Representative from Alabama 5th congressional district), Roy Stewart Moore (former Chief Justice of Alabama Supreme Court), Douglas Jones (Democrat) and Trip Pittman.
Luther Strange at 29% is leading the race with Mo Brooks at 25% and Roy Moore at 24 %. At this stage, we dont expect any candidate in Republican Primary to win ouright majority and a runoff primary seems inevitable. The margin of error for the poll is 3%. Interestingly 11 % of Republicans indicated that they will cross over to a Democrat and vote for Douglas Jones.
Strange was appointed by Gov. Bentley to fill the vacant seat of AG Jeff Sessions. Boosted by PAC with ties to Senate Majoirty Leader Mitch McConnell, Strange has dominated the airwaves so far. Strange’s campaign has reported $2.7 millions in campaign contributions until now, half of it being raised in last quarter. The Senate Leadership Fund has announced reserving $2.6 million worth of ad buys on behalf of Strange to help him in what is turning out to be a high spending campaign race.
Mo Brooks has been serving as a state representative for almost a decade and was elected to 5th Congressional District of Alabama in 2010. He has $1.3 million in cash heading into the August 15 primary with $300,000 raised in the last quarter. Brooks is a big Trump supporter and has supported his various policies including building the wall along the southern border. He has the endorsement of Tea Party and HFC chair Mark Meadows. Roy Moore was elected to Supreme Court of Alabama in 2012 and has been suspended twice from the court for failing to acquiesce with an order to remove Ten Commandments from the Courthouse and for his position on gay marriage. His top priorities include “flat tax”, “eliminating common core” and promoting “coal mining and oil drilling” .
Among different age groups, Luther Strange polls significantly higher among 65+ age group among all candidates.
Luther Strange and Mo Brooks are within margin of error in our poll while Roy Moore seems to be falling behind.Its important to understand that President Trump hasnt endorsed any candidate so far and his endorsement can signifcantly swing the race. So far he has preferred to stay on the sidelines.
The GOP Primary is bearing a close resemblance to early Republican Primaries of 2016 where the candidate with more energized base won. Right now, the voters are deeply divided and events may change quickly. We will do a follow up poll in the week prior to primary to gain better understanding of the Race.
Note ::: In our quest for open and transparent process, we have included a subset of our raw polling data. We have stripped off race, educational qualifications and other social behavioral questions to protect our proprietary polling information . You can download the file here Raw Data
Delphi Analytica Team